Thursday, October 29, 2009
Labels: personal history; falling snow
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Reasonably Good News
And what might these auguries be? Well, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia (and possibly the special election of a Representative in the 23rd district in New York--although that one might tell a different story). The Virginia election is a done deal. The Republican candidate will win that. The New Jersey election was, for a long while, about the same, with much disliked but rich Gov. Corzine (D) trailing badly; but then the third party guy, Daggett, did well in a recent debate and it all seemed to shift back to the incumbent Corzine. His poll numbers peaked at a plus 3, and his numbers at Intrade Prediction Markets got to about 75, a near lock.
But hold on there, kitty cat. Take a look at these numbers: At Intrade, Corzine is just over 56, having fallen over 16 in a very short time. The newest poll at Real Clear Politics, has the Republican Christie up by 3 and the third party Daggett sliding into insignificance.
The Republican candidate has a fighting chance.
So the Democrats in traditionally Republican seats will have to be very careful about their votes and such internal agita and angst may well doom the rest of President Obama's disastrous legislative agenda.
Quite good news indeed, now that I think of it.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Death Sprial of Anthropogenic Global Warming
78,080 of them are nitrogen, not a greenhouse gas
20,850 of them are oxygen, not a greenhouse gas
930 of them are argon, not a greenhouse gas
38 of them are CO2, a greenhouse gas
2 of them represent all the rest of the trace gasses in the atmosphere, some of which are greenhouse gasses.
So 2 of the 100,000 beachballs are anthropogenic CO2, an insignificant number.
Here is a graph of the anti-logarithmic slope of CO2. There is the slope which the Warmie models have chosen and then there is the slope which actual observation has drawn. So, again, even if the CO2 doubles from the the agreed pre-industrial 280 ppm, the amount of possible warming is less than 2 degrees Celsius (assuming there is not a separate positive feedback system--and it appears that there is not, indeed, probably a negative one exists). So we will reap the rewards for increased plant production from higher CO2 in the atmosphere and only pay the negligible price of gentle, slight warming. Hardly the stuff of crisis. Certainly not the stuff to cause economic suicide.
Two more nails in the AGW coffin. The metaphoric air inside will soon begin to grow stale and close. You can see the Warmies sense that and begin to panic and strike out ever more harshly.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Reality Hits Home
Unless the title refers to unloading (which I doubt) the title and phrase is backwards. You first load a gun which fires from either an open or closed bolt or action and then, if it fires closed bolt, you lock in the round. Nobody listens to me but it really should be Load 'N Lock. That doesn't even sound too bad.
Labels: Showtime: Lock 'N Load
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Photos From the New York Trip
Our friends from near New Orleans and Kit on the Circle Line boat on the Hudson and up the East River to about Sutton Place.
The Statue of Liberty up close. Son Andrew and I went up in the crown a few years ago (which requires a lot of work early in the morning and a slow long climb up the stairs in the center of the statue). Still almost worth it, if only for the view.
Here are two out of focus, moving photos of the skyline which I will pretend are arty. Something like arty.
This is actually an OK photo of south end of Manhattan. I miss the Twin Towers, even though they were ugly compared to the Empire State or Chrysler Buildings. And I think the plans for redevelopment are a sham and a shame. I like Johan Goldberg's idea--build back the towers just as they were, but one story higher,for the anti-aircraft guns. No one in New York City listens to us conservatives.
Labels: New York City
Germany Tells the Same Sad Tale About Green Jobs as Spain
- Green jobs created by government actions disappear as soon as government support is terminated, a lesson the German government and the green companies it supports are beginning to learn.
- Government aid for wind power is now three times the cost of conventional electricity.
Intermittent energy sources are worse than useless.
So, of course we're spending billions of dollars to support wind and solar in this state and throughout the nation as part of the No Energy Economy.
Thought of the Day
Labels: Freeman Dyson quote
Monday, October 12, 2009
Thought of the Day
Inglourious Basterds has to be great because, if the boffo box-office figures are true, people love it. It’s therefore undemocratic to go calling it the antihuman dirty dream of a pretentious, vacuous clown primed with Hollywood gelt to do the Jews a favor by showing that they too, given the chance, coulda/woulda behaved like mindless monsters. What does it matter, after all this time, if the world gets sold the idea that what Shoshanna and the Basterds did to the Nazis was exactly what the Jews would have done to the Germans if Harvey had been around to greenlight the project?
Labels: frederic Raphael quote
The Real South Park
Although I haven't watched the show in years, and it is set actually in Evergreen in the Front Range west of Denver, here are a few shots of South Park in the evening sun. There is a North Park too, but I wasn't driving through there recently.
Labels: South Park
Roger 0, Elk 4
It has been four years since I saw a live elk on a mountainside in Colorado, while I had a rifle in my hand. I'm forgetting what they look like. We went to our scouted spot, got the van stuck in snow and almost over a cliff when brother in law Gary was towing me out, and it was remarkably elk free. There was no sign of anything recent in the snow and we had no idea where they went. The days were absolutely silent. Our elk hunting guru, the stock boy at the local grocery store, had no idea where to go and all the hunters we talked to were baffled, frustrated and ready to go home. So we did.
I listened to the Bronco victory on the radio, as soon as I got to Poncha Springs. That was fun, but staying up late to see the Rockies lose was not as much fun.
Friday, October 09, 2009
President Obama Wins Nobel Peace Prize
Le Duc Tho (for signing a peace treaty his country never intended to honor and which it broke within 2 years)
Mikhail Gorbachev (for allowing the Soviet Union to fall on the ash heap of history without nuking nations at random)
The UN (God knows why)
Truth challenged Rigoberta Menchu Tum (for a rousing good yarn of an autobiography)
Kofi Annan (for presiding over the complete corruption of the useless UN)
UN Peace-Keeping Forces (for stopping the genocides in the former Yugoslavia, Rwanda, the Congo and the Sudan and protecting the children everywhere from sexual assault. No wait...)
Yassar Arafat (for refusing to make peace with Israel and found a Palestinian state)
Al Gore and the IPCC (for spreading the lie that anthropogenic CO2 effects global temperature in any measurable way)
International Atomic Energy Agency (for failing to stop a single technologically advanced country that wanted to get nuclear weapons from getting them)
Jimmy Carter (for his continual criticism of George Bush)
Heady company indeed.
This is the last for a while, I'm off to hunt giant deer and then see The Jersey Boys in NYC. Bit of a cultural whiplash there.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Nuke the Moon
Given President Obama's apparent preparedness to surrender in Afghanistan, the real central front, the good war, the necessary war, according to Candidate Obama, the smart money, if a conflict erupts, is on the moon.
Labels: Moon bomb
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
A Top Ten I Can Get Behind
Labels: Top Ten Firearms
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Our Trailer Park in the Sky
Labels: Space Station
Friday, October 02, 2009
Thought of the Day
Labels: Jonah Goldberg quote
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Word of the Week
Warmie scientist Keith Briffa published a hockey stick graph in 2000 based on Russian scientists' work with tree rings from the Yamal peninsula in Siberia. The underlying raw data was not disclosed for 9 years and finally, when it was, Steve McIntyre took a hard look and discovered that there are hundreds of tree rings to use and the Warmie Briffa only used about a dozen, one of which is an outlier hockey stick (not literally). McIntyre use of another subset revealed a graph the opposite of a hockey stick.
Trees are bad proxies for temperature anyway. It could be any one of several dozen things that causes their growth rings to be fat or thin. Temperature is just one. Water is the factor that predominates. There is absolutely no way to isolate the growth caused by temperature alone from at least the really old trees.
The Warmie scientist replied but he sidesteps the major questions. The Warmie true believers at Real Climate went absolutely nuts and responded, but the reply seems to me another sidestep with way too big a helping of ad hominem. The lady doth protest too much, methinks. But back to the thread.
The Warmie scientists said this in his response:
My colleagues and I are working to develop methods that are capable of expressing robust evidence of climate changes using tree-ring data.
That statement caused a commenter to translate it into:
We are developing methods to make trees talk. (…and they’ll say what we want them to, and nothing else? That’s called dendrophrenology.)
Now you see how important is the reported loss of the Hadley Climate Research Unit's raw data for its world temperature record. It appears Warmie scientists cook the data to support their theories, or at least they interrogate the data, using enhanced methods, until it confesses.
UPDATE: Dr. Briffa said this in his response:
I note that McIntyre qualifies the presentation of his version(s) of the chronology by reference to a number of valid points that require further investigation.
A hit, a palpable hit.
UPDATE 2: Here is a much better semi-fisking of the response of the Warmie site, Real Climate. And here is a take down of the lie/strawman that begins the response.
When you're taking flak (and not reasoned counter-arguments) you must be over the target.
I recall when basketball great Oscar Robertson, after he retired, gave a try to broadcasting as the color man. His best comments were along the lines of "Oh Man, did you see that play?" He didn't have a long career in broadcasting.
I read through Gavin Schmidt's responses to some of the better questions in his site's comment section. He's the big O of scientific response. He asks if a reader's very pertinent question is a joke (that was the entirety of his response); he calls another clueless and when the question is presented again, admits he knows nothing about the subject. All with a very ominous vibe. Not the stuff to inspire confidence in Schmidt's scientific chops. Indeed, just the opposite.
UPDATE 3: Here is a very sober and well reasoned look at the bigger picture of climate research, riffing off the hockey stick problem. Who could be against scientific method and transparency? Not us Deniers.
Roman Polanski in Chinatown
I know it's just a role. I could have shown a scene from, say, "The Fearless Vanpire Killers" instead, but in that one he didn't say the words 'kitty cat.' As I've said, I quite like Polanski's work--he just happens to have raped a 13 year old 32 years ago and escaped justice.